Mekelle – Fears of a new escalation in Ethiopia are growing following the resumption of fighting in the north of the country and an offensive by Tigrayan fighters in the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. Concern is also mounting over the formation of a new alliance of armed groups that has declared its intention to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
On 23 September, Tigrayan fighters took control of Mekelle’s main airport and clashed with federal forces in the Afar and Amhara regions. In the previous days, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front , the political party and paramilitary organization that governed the region, had joined a new coalition of seven rebel groups formed with the stated aim of ousting the government in Addis Ababa.
Federal forces responded with drone strikes and ground operations. Reported incidents have also included an attack on a Catholic Relief Services convoy carrying food aid.
The humanitarian situation in Tigray remains particularly critical. The region has been under conditions of isolation for months, with the federal government restricting the flow of fuel and medical supplies and blocking the salaries of public-sector employees. Possible further disruptions to electricity supplies and communications are also feared.
Local sources have also reported serious damage to public infrastructure caused by the fighting, affecting hospitals, schools and religious institutions.
The International Committee of the Red Cross said it had managed to evacuate around 160 people from Tigray, including Ethiopian Federal Police officers, Ethiopian Airlines employees and African Union observers. Observers are concerned not only about the people of Tigray, but more broadly about the safety of civilians throughout northern Ethiopia.
On 25 September, seven armed groups from different parts of the country, including the TPLF, announced the formation of the Ethiopian People’s Forces Alliance for Survival, declaring the removal of the Addis Ababa government as their objective.
Around the same time, the TPLF had seized control of three airports from the federal police. Ethiopian Airlines subsequently announced the suspension of flights to Tigray “due to the current situation”. The following day, flights to the historic city of Lalibela were also suspended because of fighting in the surrounding areas. In Tigray, meanwhile, people have begun stockpiling food and cash amid fears of a further deterioration in the situation.
The TPLF governed Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, when it was ousted following Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power. The subsequent breakdown between the federal government and the authorities in Tigray led to the civil war fought from 2020 to 2022.
The resumption of clashes are once again putting pressure on the Pretoria Agreement, or Cessation of Hostilities Agreement , signed on 2 November 2022 under the mediation of the African Union. The agreement established a cessation of hostilities between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF, bringing two years of war to an end.
In response to the new escalation, on 22 September the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, urged all parties to exercise “the utmost restraint” and resume direct talks.
During the 2020–2022 conflict, Tigray remained largely cut off from the rest of the world. Communications were disrupted and access to food, cash and medicines was severely restricted, pushing hundreds of thousands of people into famine-like conditions. The new escalation is therefore rekindling fears of a humanitarian crisis and a broader conflict in northern Ethiopia.
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