AFRICA/SOMALIA – Humanitarian crisis compounded by political and institutional instability

Mogadishu – “With great concern, I am following the humanitarian crisis unfolding in certain areas of Somalia, where acts of violence and extreme weather events are exacerbating the already precarious living conditions of the population, particularly of women and children. I hope for the generous involvement of the international community, so that our brothers and sisters may not lack the necessary assistance.” The appeal made by Pope Leo XIV after the Angelus on Sunday, 20 September, has once again drawn international attention to Somalia’s complex situation, caught between political and institutional instability and the consequences of climatic phenomena such as El Niño.
On the political level, the federal government in Mogadishu is facing accusations from at least three member states of the federation, Puntland, Jubaland and South West State, of having approved constitutional amendments without the consent of the member states.
Federal President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud claims that, under the constitutional amendments approved on 30 March 2024, he remains the legitimate Head of State until 15 May 2027. The opposition disputes the validity of these amendments, arguing that Mohamud’s constitutional mandate expired on 15 May 2026, in accordance with Somalia’s provisional constitution.
In November 2024, Jubaland suspended cooperation with the central government and amended its own constitution to overcome the two-term limit for its President, Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe, who was subsequently elected to a third term. A court in Mogadishu then issued an arrest warrant for Madobe, accusing him of high treason, violating the constitutional order, disclosing confidential information to foreign actors and threatening national unity. In turn, the court in Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, placed a bounty on the federal President Mohamud, accusing him of treason, undermining national unity and colluding with the Al-Shabaab jihadists. Somali soldiers attempted to seize control of Jubaland but were repelled with heavy losses.
For his part, South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen suspended relations with Mogadishu in March 2026, following what he described as an attempt by the federal army to overthrow him. In recent months, there have been several clashes between federal troops and militias loyal to Laftagareen.
The political and institutional instability overlaps with the war against the Al-Shabaab jihadists, who still control large areas of the country, particularly in rural regions. In 2022, Federal President Mohamud declared an all-out war against Al-Shabaab, targeting their strongholds in Middle Shabelle, Hiraan and Galmudug. However, despite the support of international contingents, including Turkish and Ugandan forces, as well as local militia groups known as Macawisley, the results so far have been disappointing. This has created a further source of friction between the central government and the federal member states, which suspect that, rather than eliminating the Al-Shabaab threat, the federal forces prefer to maintain a form of controlled conflict in central and southern Somalia. A war economy has emerged, favouring the perpetuation of instability to the detriment of the civilian population.
The shortcomings of the federal army in its fight against Al-Shabaab stand in contrast to the offensives conducted by the autonomous state of Puntland against the Islamic State in the Cal Miskaad mountains, with US support. Puntland has become part of the US strategy of establishing new bases of support in the Horn of Africa, particularly now that the Houthis have taken control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline.
In this context of deep insecurity and political instability, Somalia will also have to face the climatic consequences of “Super El Niño”. The Somali disaster management agency has warned the population to prepare for the effects of “Super El Niño”, including heavy rainfall, flooding and river overflows.

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