With social conservative leadership, B.C. Conservatives lead in polls

Paul Tuns:

In May, Conservative Party of British Columbia (CPBC) members narrowly elected former MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay as leader on the fourth ballot, besting Caroline Elliott 51-49 per cent. During her leadership campaign, Findlay vowed to scrap the province’s sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) program in schools, ran against the NDP government’s lax drug policies, and promised to restore freedom in the province. In her acceptance speech, Findlay invoked God (“in our national anthem, we cry out to God to make our land glorious and free – free people making free choices and free speech in a free-enterprise economy”), committed to restoring parental rights in education, and called faith, family, and freedom her priorities as leader.

Findlay, 71, previously served two stints as an MP, from 2011-2015 (Delta-Richmond East) and 2019-2025 (South Surrey-White Rock), losing her seat in both 2015 and 2025. She served as Minister of Revenue for the final two years of Stephen Harper’s government from 2013 to 2015. Her husband, Brent Chapman, is MLA for Surrey South.

A leadership race was called following John Rustad’s resignation as leader after five former Conservative MLAs were either removed or resigned from caucus, including three socially conservative MLAs, one of which, Tara Armstrong (Kelowna Lake-Country Coldstream), endorsed Findlay.

Findlay has a mixed record on social issues but was considered the most pro-life candidate among the five contending for the leadership. Campaign Life Coalition said that “as a federal MP, Findlay had both good and bad votes on abortion.” As an MP, Findlay voted for Bill C-233 in 2021 to outlaw sex-selective abortion, but in 2012 she voted against Motion 312 which sought to study the Criminal Code’s definition of “human being” and the implications that followed from it.

On euthanasia, Findlay consistently voted against it and she told the pro-life group Right Now that she would pass legislation to protect the conscience rights of healthcare workers and institutions that do not want to take part in the deadly practice. She vowed to permit free votes on matters of conscience and she would not dissuade MLAs from bringing forth private members bills related to abortion and euthanasia.

As an MP, Findlay had a mixed record on LGBTQ issues including voting in 2012 to enshrine gender identity and gender expression in the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Criminal Code and voting in 2021 for the so-called conversion therapy ban outlawing talk therapy for gender confused and same-sex attracted youth. However, as a leadership candidate she opposed SOGI in schools and pledged to immediately ban medical and social transitioning for children.

The corporate media said Findlay’s victory represented the victory of the populist wing of the provincial Conservative Party. David Black, who teaches political theory at Royal Roads University in Victora, said “she was the purest candidate with respect to populist bona fides.” Meanwhile, Elliott’s candidacy appeared to be run by central casting. Elliott’s campaign manager was Kory Teneycke, a key advisor to Ontario Premier Doug Ford and critic of federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, and included numerous Ottawa and Toronto advisors such as Nick Kouvalis, who advised former Toronto mayor John Tory, and Jeff Ballingall, founder of Canada Proud.

Two socially liberal MLAs who were formerly members of the CPBC caucus, Amelia Boultbee and Elenore Sturko, complained about the party’s move to the right. Boultbee said Findlay is engaged in “Trump-style populism” and Sturko implied Findlay is cozying up to “polarizing extremes.”

While two Research Co polls (in June and August) have the provincial NDP slightly ahead of the CPBC, a Leger Marketing poll has the Conservative up by four percentage points while two Angus Reid polls had the Conservative up by double digits.

Prior to Findlay becoming leader, the NDP and Conservatives were trading leads of various sizes, so Findlay’s right-wing populism and social conservativism has not hurt the CPBC.

In 2024, the NDP won re-election, garnering nearly 45 per cent of the vote and winning a majority of one seat (47 of 93). The Conservatives won 43 per cent of the vote and 44 seats. The Green Party won eight per cent of the vote and two seats.

The 338Canada website projects that with current polling, the Conservatives would likely win with 44 per cent of the vote and 54 seats.

The next B.C. provincial election is schedule for October 2028.

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