by Cosimo Graziani
Stockholm – On March 9, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published its report on the development of the arms market for the five-year period 2021–2025.
The report is considered one of the most important tools for analyzing the international arms market and its changes over the years. In particular, the current edition reflects the changes resulting from the wars in Ukraine, Sudan, and the Middle East, thus providing an overview of the deterioration of international relations in recent years.
According to the report, the arms market grew by 9.2% in the five-year period 2021–2025 compared to the previous five years, confirming an upward trend that began in the five-year period 2001–2005.
The continent with the strongest increase in imports during the period under review is Europe, with a rise of 210%, driven by the conflict in Ukraine and the rearmament of European countries. Elsewhere, the trend is negative: Imports fell by 41% in Africa, by 20% in Asia and Oceania, and by 13% in the Middle East. Only the Americas saw an increase, at 12%.
As for individual countries, Ukraine has been the world’s leading importer, accounting for 9.2% of the total, while the United States has remained the leading supplier with 42%.
Washington has increased its share by almost a third in recent years: compared to 2016-2020, its exports grew by 27%. France and Russia follow, with 9.8% and 6.8% of exports, respectively, representing increases of 21% and -64%. Among the top ten exporters, five are European countries: in addition to France and Russia, these include Germany, Italy, which has registered the largest increase in exports at 157% over five years, the United Kingdom, and Spain.
China, Israel, and South Korea are also among the leading exporters.
Among the countries that have most increased their exports is Poland, which accounts for only 1% of global exports, but whose arms sales have grown by 4,387% compared to 2016-2020, with Ukraine as the main destination, reflecting the new security stance of its foreign policy.
Looking at importing countries, the top ten include Ukraine, Poland , the United States, four countries in Asia and Oceania, and three Middle Eastern countries. Interestingly, two of these countries are currently involved in conflicts: Pakistan with Afghanistan, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia with Iran. In these cases, the increase in arms imports was a sign of the deteriorating regional security situation.
It is striking that Africa is absent from both categories, even though a war has broken out in Sudan in the last five years, a civil war is raging in Tigray, the internal conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has intensified, and the security situation in the Sahel region is tense.
The only African countries among the largest importers are Morocco and Algeria .
The problem highlighted in the report regarding the African arms market is the secrecy surrounding agreements between suppliers and importers, which makes precise calculations impossible. This is clearly evident in the deliveries to Algeria, which in recent years has concluded a supply agreement with Russia, the terms of which are unknown, as well as to the warring parties in Sudan. Secrecy surrounding the arms market in Africa makes it possible to predict the coming years: wherever political crises prevail, the possibility of new wars cannot be ruled out.
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