Uganda goes to the polls amid promises of economic development and accusations of repression

Kampala – Uganda is preparing to hold presidential elections on January 15. As in other countries on the continent, the Ugandan election is marked by the confrontation between a president who has governed the country for decades – Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986 – and a political opponent, Robert Kyagulanyi, a former rapper also known as Bobi Wine, who is running for the second time after his 2021 candidacy and who has long denounced the government’s increasingly authoritarian policies. The issues at the heart of the political debate are diverse: President Museveni has placed economic development at the center of his political agenda, the most recent manifestation of which is the development of oil reserves by the French company TotalEnergies and the Chinese company CNOOC, while the population is particularly concerned about youth unemployment in a country where the majority of the population – 33 million out of a total of 46 million – is under 30. The rhetoric of economic development and the promise of its benefits constitute the main argument with which the incumbent president hopes to remain in power. As early as 2014, in an interview with the Chatham House think tank, Museveni stated that Uganda was “taking off” economically, and the following year he justified his intention to continue governing by comparing the country to a plantation that, after the harvest, was beginning to bear its first fruits.
At the heart of oil exploitation, which currently appears to be the most important instrument the government intends to rely on, are the construction of a refinery and the completion of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline .
The pipeline connects Uganda with Tanzania and, according to both countries, is scheduled to be operational by the end of 2026. In this context, it should not be forgotten that the country’s development in recent years has also been fostered by the support of international partners and institutions such as China, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the United States, and the World Bank, which granted a $2 billion loan in 2025 after freezing it for two years. Relations with the US deserve further examination: Museveni’s government agreed to accept asylum seekers from third countries from the United States, and in return, the US government has allocated $1.7 billion for healthcare.
Given the president’s development rhetoric, the opposition remains skeptical about the actual benefits for the country. Kyagulanyi has stated in recent weeks that, if elected, he will review the terms of the agreement on the exploitation of the country’s reserves to ensure it truly serves Uganda’s interests. The crucial question remains whether he can actually be elected, given the government’s actions against opposition figures.
Back in 2021, there were already 3,000 arrests among Kyagulanyi’s supporters, and the protests resulted in 54 deaths. In recent weeks, the rapper’s party, the National Unity Platform , announced that 400 of its supporters had been arrested. The repression of the opposition has also been condemned by the United Nations. In addition to the repression during campaign events, opposition figures have also been arrested, such as lawyer and activist Sarah Bareete, who was taken from her home on December 30 for allegedly leaking election data. Furthermore, opposition forces fear that, as in 2021, the government might decide to restrict internet access during the elections to prevent the dissemination of images that could prove irregularities or support the opposition candidate.

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