AFRICA/MADAGASCAR – “A civil war was imminent” in Madagascar

Antananarivo – “On Saturday, October 11, a civil war was imminent,” sources within the Church of Madagascar told Fides. Yesterday, October 15, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, head of the CAPSAT , which rebelled against President Andry Rajoelina, announced that he will be installed as provisional Head of State on Friday, October 17. Our sources reconstruct the events of the last few days that led to the president’s escape and the colonel’s seizure of power as follows: “When the CAPSAT soldiers decided to mutiny and take to the streets to defend the demonstrators, the worst was truly feared. The soldiers went to May 13 Square, the symbolic site of the capital, where Madagascar’s most important demonstrations have always taken place. There, they encountered the gendarmes defending the presidential palace. There were several gunshots, and at least one soldier was killed. Then the gendarmes suddenly withdrew and allowed the soldiers to enter the square.” “It should be remembered,” the sources add, “that Pope Leo XIV had just led the prayer vigil for peace on October 11. And on the same day, Malagasy bishops had proclaimed a day of prayer and fasting for the country. Among the soldiers and gendarmes, there are several Catholic faithful who may have decided to follow the voice of their conscience and spare the country a bloodbath.” “The situation has calmed down for now, but prayers must be offered that all parties reach an agreement. The population has welcomed the military’s takeover of power, and the streets are filled with cheering people,” the observers say. Following the resignation of President Rajoelina, who has now been declared deposed by the military, a period of uncertainty is beginning. “Colonel Randrianirina has announced that the Constitutional Court will appoint him as President tomorrow. However, the court was dissolved by the military just a few days ago . This has created an institutional confusion that no one knows how to resolve,” the sources emphasize. Meanwhile, in his announcement, Colonel Randrianirina stated that he will be installed with the title “President for the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar.” The title derives from his platform, which calls for constitutional reform and the subsequent election of representatives of the new institutions. “The road out of the crisis is long, and fears of renewed violence have not yet been fully dispelled,” the sources say. “We can say that the probability of civil war, which was 70 percent on October 11, has now dropped to 15 percent.” Yesterday, the African Union announced that it had suspended Madagascar’s membership with immediate effect following the coup, calling for the restoration of a civilian government and the organization of elections.

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